In the past month, four degrees of cold wave has invaded most parts of China, and many places have recorded a new low temperature this winter.Stimulated by the cold weather, the hot sales of winter clothes directly drive the sales of Fashion brands (clothing companies/shoe companies).
-- "It was so cold that an errand bought Uniqlo and delivered it home."
-- "Just now, Tmall ordered a pair of Uggs."
"--" I never wear a down jacket in winter. This winter I'm still looking for the warmest down jacket."
As the cold wave sets in, it seems that people's closets are no longer resistant to the cold, with readers of the magazine reporting that they have been stocking up on warm clothes recently to cope with the "crying cold" weather.
The change of temperature and cold weather not only has a direct impact on consumers' demand for clothing, but also has an impact on the stability of clothing supply chain.In fact, weather has become one of the key factors affecting the direction of the fashion retail industry.
The effect has been particularly pronounced this winter.A cold wave of four degrees has hit most parts of China in more than a month, and many places have recorded new low temperatures this winter.Stimulated by the cold weather, the hot sales of winter clothes directly drive the sales of fashion brands (clothing companies/shoe companies).
Colder than the previous winter, let clothing enterprises benefit obviously
The average temperature in major Chinese cities in December 2020 was lower than the same period last year, according to the National Meteorological Center.Rapid cooling and substantial cooling become the key words of this winter.In addition, the Spring Festival in 2021 is delayed, and it is expected that the consumption peak season will last longer, which is conducive to winter clothing sales in 2020.
Looking at the latest financial statements of domestic and foreign fashion brands, we also send a positive signal:
-- Uniqlo
Uniqlo, the fast-fashion brand owned by Japan's Fast Retailing group, recently released its December 2020 sales figures.Same-store sales in Japan, which include both direct and online sales, were up 6.2 per cent in December from a year earlier, while total sales, which include both direct and licensed stores and online sales, were up 6.1 per cent.
Uniqlo's stores in Japan were mostly operating well in December, although five were temporarily closed and another 84 had their opening hours shortened as a result of the outbreak.Under these special circumstances, Uniqlo's sales growth will not be easy.
A key driver of Uniqlo's strong sales growth in Japan was cold weather in December."Following the sharp cold weather in December, sales of warm clothing for home wear and other items tailored to customers' needs at home were strong," Uniqlo said.
- who
Lilang, a Chinese men's wear brand, released its latest operating data on January 8, showing that the total retail sales of "Lilanz" products in the fourth quarter of 2020 increased by 10%~15% year on year, further improving from the 5%~10% in the third quarter, while the annual retail sales decline narrowed to 10%~15%.The fourth quarter sales performance far exceeded the company's earlier expectations for a mid-unit percentage increase and accelerated from the third quarter's high single-digit growth.
Under the influence of the cold winter weather, Lilang's winter clothing sales increased significantly, especially in the southern region of China.Analysts also said Lilang's strong fourth-quarter sales growth was partly due to a cold winter that boosted sales volumes and unit prices.
Lilang relevant person in charge to "gorgeous" said, look from category, Lilang's down jacket in Guangdong, Guangxi, Jiangxi, Fujian, Hunan and other southern provinces growth most.But he also stressed that as a full-category clothing brand, Lilang does not rely on a single category of down jackets, but through a balanced category and diversification of clothing to make seasonal clothing.
- bosideng
Bosideng, a listed Chinese down wear company, recently released its retail performance for the first nine months of the 2020/21 fiscal year (ending December 31, 2020).During the reporting period, Bosideng's total retail sales of main brands increased by more than 25% compared with the same period last year.
Industry analysts said the cold snap and the delay of the Lunar New Year will effectively extend the window for selling down jackets in winter, the traditional sales season for down jackets, driving sales growth and reducing inventories.
On the Tmall platform, Bosideng, UGG and other brands with strong seasonal attributes are popular.According to the "magnificent" monitoring, Bosten best-selling single product selling at about 1000 yuan;Some of UGG's top-selling boots cost more than 1,000 yuan.
In the face of weather changes, how can enterprises better predict market demand?
Although the impact of the cold wave has gradually subsided in recent days and the temperature has warmed up, what needs to be warned is that the uncertainty of the weather has increased significantly.
How can companies forecast market demand in the face of changing weather?
In front of the supply chain, how to adjust the sales plan?
Weather forecast, can help enterprises better optimize the inventory problem?
Huali Zhi collects targeted initiatives and innovative ideas from Itochu, Lilang and Bosideng:
-- Itochu
Trading giant Itochu Corporation, one of Japan's top five general trading houses, announced a partnership with the Japan Meteorological Association to launch a trial market demand forecasting service starting from the spring and summer series of 2021.
The specific idea of the cooperation between the two parties is to integrate the past sales data of a number of apparel enterprises under Itochu with the meteorological data of Japan Meteorological Association, so as to forecast the medium and long term market demand of each commodity category on the basis of which, and adjust the production and sales plan in turn.
The test run will begin with United Arrows, Nano · Universe and other clothing companies associated with the buyer's store, and is expected to roll out to other companies in the Group in 2022.
Itochu pointed out that the fashion industry, which used to base production plans on the previous year's sales data, is now shifting to "objective data based production plans" to further address the challenges posed by inventory.
- who
In fact, the cooperation between clothing enterprises and meteorological departments is not new.
The person in charge of Lilang told "Huali Zhi" that they have cooperated with CCTV's weather forecast service for many years.At the same time, he said frankly: "Weather forecasting is only a general range, there is no way to achieve complete accuracy, enterprises can only through a complete decision-making process to do a good job in sales planning."
As a full-category clothing brand, in the face of weather problems, Lilang considers the rational procurement budget and the whole supply-sales chain, as well as the quick return mechanism, inventory balance.
Take this fall and winter sales season.During National Day in October, the sales showed a good trend. According to the data feedback, Lilang promptly responded to supplement the flour and accessories, made a series of rapid return orders for some winter products, and appropriately increased the proportion of winter products.
"We have dealt with the cold weather a little bit and it doesn't make any difference that it's not cold.By comprehensively predicting and preparing for the production cycle and sales fluctuation, enterprises are less disturbed by the fluctuation of cold and warm weather cycle and have a stronger ability to resist risks."
- bosideng
Weather prediction can provide guidance for enterprises to make sales plans, optimize inventory, etc., but for enterprises, in the climate change, which is a strong uncertainty factor, only to strengthen their own supply chain capacity is the best tool to deal with the weather.
In the past year, Bosideng has continued to strengthen the advantages of "high quality fast reverse + intelligent logistics".Specifically including:
Refined ordering mode: the proportion of the first order should not exceed 40%, the epidemic rate should be reduced to 30%, and the subsequent 70% should be placed in a rolling manner according to the sales situation, with flexible replenishment by pull replenishment and quick updating
The introduction of smart logistics, with the help of big data to achieve a large number of + fast + accurate efficient distribution
